Haryana Assembly Poll 2014 – Post Poll Analysis

The scope of the article is to analyse the recent polls in Haryana, with a particular emphasis on the performance of the BJP in the state. In particular, we shall examine where the BJP vote came from, how it performed in comparison to the Lok Sabha elections, and what the lessons for the BJP are.

The BJP has just performed very well in Haryana and has seized power in a state where it had never even been the principal opposition. It has won 33.3% of the total vote, and 47 seats as opposed to the principal rivals, the Congress, which has won only 20.6% of the vote and 15 seats, and the INLD-SAD combine, which has won 24.8% of the vote and 20 seats. This is a huge change from 2009, when the Congress won 35.43% of the vote, the BJP won 9.44% of the vote and the INLD won 26.23% of the vote.

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Before we go into an analysis of the performance of the different parties, it is interesting to see the number of votes that have been cast in 2014, and compare it against the number of votes cast in 2009. In 2009, there was a voting of 72.3% with 94,79, 644 votes, whereas, in 2014, there was a voting of 78.5% with 1,24,26,968 votes cast. Basically, the number of votes cast increased by 31.09%, which is a phenomenal change. Given the huge increase in votes, let us see how the changes have occurred in the number of votes accruing to the different parties.

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Taking a look at the above figure, we see that the Congress vote came down from 33.58 lakh votes in 2009 to 25.59 lakh votes in 2014 in an election where the number of votes rose by 31% compared to the previous election. Roughly, the Congress vote has fallen by about a quarter. This is a huge beating that the Congress has taken. The BJP, in contrast, benefited enormously. The BJP had polled a measly 8.94 lakh votes in Haryana in 2009. In 2014, its vote rose to 41.32 lakhs, more than quadrupling. This phenomenal rise in vote has been unparalleled in history of Haryana. The only one that comes close is the rise of the BJP vote in Karnataka in the aftermath of the Ram wave in 1991. The INLD vote also rose from 24.86 lakhs to 30.77 lakhs, rising by about 25%. Given that the number of votes rose by 31%, they seem to have lost a small proportion. However, it must be borne in mind that the INLD voters tend to be the more committed lot, leaving few votes in the reserves. The rise in the vote share is likely to hurt them, particularly if there exists a good alternative to the Congress in Haryana. Consequently, the INLD can be thought of as having maintained its voters.

The BJP’s phenomenal rise leaves us with a good question. Whose vote did the BJP take? Judging by the fact that the Congress lost about 8 lakh votes, we can assume that the BJP took a good chunk of the Congress vote. The vote of the others in 2009 was 27.4 lakhs, and the vote of the others in 2014 was 26.58 lakhs. The BJP may be thought to have netted about a lakh or so of the other parties’ votes. The main bonus for the BJP seems to have come from the new voters, who have given it most of its vote. In fact, the higher voting in Haryana has benefited the BJP enormously, which goes to show the importance of getting its vote out for the BJP. For this purpose, a dedicated cadre is vital, and the BJP lives and dies by its cadre. Without the cadre, there will be far fewer votes for the BJP.

In terms of the vote share, the Congress lost 14.8% of the vote, coming down from 35.43% to 20.59%. The INLD also lost marginally from 26.23% to 24.76%, a drop of 1.5%. The BJP, on the other hand, rose from 9.44% to 33.3%, a huge gain of 23.9%. This vote rise is unprecedented in the history of Haryana. Among the others, both the HJC and the BSP lost vote share. The HJC lost vote share from 7.32% to 4.22%, a drop of 3.1%. The BSP came down from 6.79% to 4.37%, a drop of 2.42%. The loss of both seems to have been the gain of the BJP.

It is interesting to see how the various parties have done in the different regions of the state. Haryana has four major regions. The northern region, the Ahirwal, the southern region, and the Jat belt.

Northern region:
Out of the 27 seats in this region, the BJP won 22 seats. This phenomenal performance in the north is what has propelled the BJP to a victory. This region comprises of the districts of Panchkula, Ambala, Yamunanagar, Kurukshetra, Kaithal, Karnal, and Panipat districts. The BJP has put up a spectacular performance in this region. The BJP won both the seats in Panchkula, all the four seats in Ambala district, all the four seats in Yamunanagar, all five seats in Karnal district, three of the four seats in Kurukshetra, and three out of the four seats in Panipat district. It was only in Kaithal (which shares some characteristics of the Jat belt, and also some Punjabi characteristics) that the BJP performed badly, winning only one of the four seats. The BJP’s superlative performance here has simply blown away all the competition. In contrast, the Congress and the INLD have won only 1 seats apiece. Three seats have been won by independents. In 2009, the INLD had won 14 of the 27 seats, and the Congress had won 8. The BJP had won 1, the BSP 1, and independents 3.

In terms of vote share, the BJP won 37.97% in the Northern region, and it is well above 40% if one counts out the district of Kaithal. In the northern region adjoining the Yamuna (the west bank of the Yamuna), the BJP has swept the polls. In fact, a historical analogy would be that this is a reverse Panipat, with the BJP invading the region from the east and the north. That the BJP has made such huge inroads among the Punjabis augurs well for the BJP, particularly if it chooses to go it alone in Punjab in 2017. In contrast, the BJP vote share was 11.28% in 2009. The BJP has more than tripled its vote share in the northern region, and this region is going to be the bedrock of the BJP with its choice of CM – Manohar Lal Khattar. In all this, there is one small source of worry for the BJP. In the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP vote was ~45%. Now, it has dropped by about 8%. In one sense, this was to be expected, because the BJP was in alliance with the HJC (which has about 5% of the vote in the region), and the people were voting for Modi as PM. Nevertheless, it should be borne in mind.

The Congress came down from its high of 31.94% in 2009 to 18.71% in 2014. Roughly, except for Kaithal district, where the Congress still retains its vote share, the Congress vote share was halved. The INLD, on the other hand, dropped its vote share from 25.76% to 21.16%.

Ahirwal:
This region comprises of the districts of Mahendragarh, Rewari and Gurgaon in Haryana. Out of the 11 seats in the region, the BJP has won all the 11. The BJP won all the 4 seats in Gurgaon, all the 4 seats in Mahendragarh, and all the three 3 in Rewari district. Again the BJP’s superlative performance in Ahirwal has blown all competition away. Obviously, the other parties have drawn a blank. In 2009, the Congress had won 7 seats, the INLD 2, the HJC 1, and an independent 1. Now, all non-BJP parties have been wiped out in the region.

In terms of vote share, the BJP has performed superbly, once more, winning 47.2% of the vote. In 2009, the BJP had 12.83% of the vote here. That the BJP has quadrupled its vote is nothing short of superlative. I fervently hope that the BJP richly rewards this region, which has reposed its faith in the BJP. The Congress, in contrast, has fallen from 30.28% to 11.81%, which is roughly a third of the vote percentage it got in 2009. The bulk of the Congress vote seems to have migrated to the BJP, which is now seen as the new champion of the non-Jats. The BJP should shore up this vote bank with good administration and careful policies.

South Haryana:
This region comprises of the districts of Mewat, Palwal and Faridabad. There are 12 seats in the region, and out of the twelve, the BJP won only 3 seats. The BJP was expected to do badly in Mewat (which is Muslim dominated), but surprisingly, has performed less well than expected even in the three seats of Palwal district, losing in all three. However, the BJP did well, winning three of the six seats of Faridabad district. However, it might do the party some good to introspect on its poor performance in Palwal district, and even slightly less creditable (compared to Ahirwal and North Haryana) performance in Faridabad. The INLD has won 4 of the 12 seats, the Congress 3, and the BSP has won 1 seat. Another seat has been won by an independent. In 2009, the Congress had won 5 seats, the INLD 4, the BJP had won 1 seat, and independents had won 2 seats.

In terms of vote percentages, the BJP won 32.48% of the vote. If one removes the Muslim majority Mewat district, then the BJP vote share improves to 37.04%. However, its conversion of vote share to seats was bad in this region, principally because it was faced against a bunch of Congress and INLD heavyweights. Nevertheless, the BJP should reflect on this failure, because it could portend ill for the party. In 2009, the BJP had won 13.01% of the vote in South Haryana (14.35% without Mewat district). The BJP more than doubled its vote percentage, but the improvement has been less marked than in other regions. Further, unlike other regions, the BSP retains considerable influence in South Haryana still, winning 10.02% of the vote. The Congress, on the other hand, fell from 35.14% in 2009 to 23.07% in 2014 of the vote, while the INLD, which won 21.14% of the vote in 2009, actually rose to 22.39% of the vote.

Jat Belt:
This region consists of the districts of Sonepat, Rohtak, Jhajjar, Jind, Fatehabad, Sirsa, Hissar, and Bhiwani districts. The region has 40 seats. The BJP has won 11 seats. The BJP won 1 of the 6 seats in Sonepat, 1 of the 4 seats in Rohtak, 2 of the 4 seats in Jhajjar, 1 of the 5 seats in Jind district, 1 of the 3 in Fatehabad, none of the 5 in Sirsa, 2 of the 5 in Hissar, and 3 of the 6 in Bhiwani. This performance leaves quite a bit to be desired, particularly in Hissar, Sirsa and Sonepat districts. In contrast, the Congress has won 11 of the 40 seats, while the INLD has won 14 seats. The HJC has won 3 seats. An independent has won 1 seat. In 2009, the Congress had won 20 seats, the INLD had won 13, the HJC had won 3, the BJP had won 2, and independents had won 2 seats.

In terms of vote shares, the INLD topped the Jat belt winning 28.26%, down from 29.41% in 2009 – a drop of 1.1%. The Congress won 23.86% of the vote in the Jat belt, down from 39.47% in 2009, a drop of 15.61%. Considering that Hooda belongs to this belt, the collapse is all the more stark. In contrast, the BJP won 25.87% of the vote, up from 6.23% of the vote in 2009 – a rise of 19.64% of the vote.

However, the leaders of all the non-BJP parties came from this region – Bhupinder Singh Hooda belongs to Rohtak, the Chauthalas come from Sirsa district, and the Bhajan Lal family comes from Hissar district, so it is unsurprising that their respective parties would do well in their home districts. The Chauthalas won all the 5 seats of the Sirsa district. It is interesting to see that, in Sirsa, at least, the BJP’s alliance with the Dera Sacha Sauda, has not borne fruit – it appears that Chauthala was too strong for them. In Hisar, the HJC won 2 of the 7 seats, while the INLD won 3 seats. In Rohtak, Sonipat and Jhajjar, where the Congress was expected to do very well, the Congress won 5 of the 6 seats in Sonipat, 3 of the 4 in Rohtak, and 2 of the 4 in Jhajjar. This indicates that the influence of the Congress and the INLD, while dented, still remains strong in the home districts of the leaders. On the other hand, in a district like Bhiwani, where Bansi Lal’s legacy is being upheld only by Kiran Chaudhary, the BJP was able to make major inroads, winning 3 of the 6 seats. The conclusion would be that the BJP still has a considerable distance to go in the Jat belt, before it is secure. Further, the BJP needs strong Jat leaders, which it would need to build in the next five years.

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Rajya Sabha – A numbers game

The BJP has been beset by a strange problem. While it has achieved majorithy in the Lok Sabha, the party has been unable to achieve a majority in the Rajya Sabha. This is unsurprising – after all, the Rajya Sabha members are elected from the states, and considering that the BJP was nearly absent in nearly half the states, the BJP is found to have only about a fifth of the strength in the Rajya Sabha. Can the BJP improve its strength in the Rajya Sabha in the next four and a half years, i.e., before 2019 polls? Let us look at the upcoming vacancies in the Rajya Sabha in the next five years.

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From the above table, one can see the vacancies that are going to occur in the next few years, and how many the BJP can expect to gain.

First a word about the esoteric mechanism for electing Rajya Sabha members from the states. Each vote by a member carries a value of 100. Suppose there are x vacancies in the Rajya Sabha to be filled up by the State Assembly, then the strength of the Assembly is multiplied by 100, and then divided by x+1. The number of votes needed for a member to get elected is given by the formula
Votes needed = [(Assembly Strength*100)/(Number of Vacancies + 1)]+1. How the whole matter is handled in case of surplus votes is best illustrated in this document.

http://www.assembly.tn.gov.in/rajyasabha/archives2013/illustration_286_rajya%20sabha.pdf

But in these days of everyone ganging up against the BJP, it is safe to assume that not many parties will cooperate with the BJP in getting its members into the Rajya Sabha. We shall proceed to examine, state by state, what the BJP can expect to get in the next few years in the Rajya Sabha. We shall also make predictions based on the possible scenarios in the coming elections.

But before we proceed, we outline below the current strengths of the parties in the Rajya Sabha. All data is taken from the official Rajya Sabha web site.

INC – 68
BJP – 43
BSP – 14
TMC – 12
JD(U) – 12
AIADMK – 11
SP – 10
Independents – 9
CPI (M) – 9
BJD – 7
NCP – 6
TDP – 6
DMK – 4
SS – 3
SAD – 3
CPI – 2
INLD – 2
NC – 2
JD(S) – 1
JMM – 1
KC(M) – 1
BPF – 1
SDF – 1
NPF – 1
RJD – 1
RPI (A) – 1
TRS – 1

Currently, the NDA numbers are 59 (56 via parties, and 3 independents elected with support from the BJP). Since we are particularly concerned with the strengths of the NDA, the focus is more on the NDA numbers, than the numbers of the others.

Andhra Pradesh:
Current position: There are 7 MPs due to retire (4 in 2016, and 3 in 2018). Of the 4 retiring in 2016, 2 are from the Congress, 1 from the TDP and 1 from the BJP. Of the ones due to retire in 2018, 2 are from the Congress, and 1 from the TDP. Given the current composition of the Andhra Assembly, TDP + BJP has a strength of 106, and YCP has 67. There are 2 more others, who can presumably be expected to support the NDA in the best case. Of the 4 retiring in 2016, the number of votes needed for victory is 35. The NDA should be able to grab 3 of the four in 2016, and 2 of the 3 in 2018. So, as things stand, net gain for the NDA before 2019 polls is 2 from Andhra Pradesh. Of course, if the YSRCP breaks due to imprisonment of Jagan, all bets are off. Net change for NDA=+2. The Congress is going to lose all 4 seats it is currently holding.

Assam:
Current Status: There are 2 MPs due to retire in 2016. Unfortunately, both are going to retire before the current term of the Assembly expires. Both seats are held by the Congress. With the Congress and their BPF allies holding 90 of the 126 seats in the current Assembly, no change can be expected. Both seats will be retained by the Congress. Net change, none. Congress will hold on to both its seats.

Bihar:
Current Status: There are 11 members due to retire before 2019 (5 in 2016, and 6 in 2018). The current term of the Assembly will have expired before the RS polls are held. Of the 5 retiring in 2016, all 5 are held by the JD(U). Of those retiring in 2018, four are from the JD(U) and 2 from the BJP. In 2016, the number of votes needed to elect a member will be >40.5. If the current status of the Assembly holds, i.e., BJP has 88 members out of 243, the BJP can get 2 members into the RS. If the BJP gets a majority, i.e. 122 seats, the BJP can get 3 of the 5 seats. If the BJP gets a 163 seats (an outlandishly huge figure, one might add – getting 2/3 majority in the Bihar Assembly is a notoriously hard task.), the BJP can get 4 of the 5 seats. The more probably scenarios are either 2 seats, or 3 seats in 2016. In 2018, the number of votes the BJP will need per candidate is 35 votes. If the BJP gets 70 seats, it will get 2, if it gets 105 seats, it will get 3, and if it gets 140 seats, then the BJP is assured of getting 4 seats of the 6. Getting 175 is virtually impossible. Even in the best case, the BJP can expect to get 4 of the 6 seats in the Rajya Sabha in 2018. Assuming the best case, we can say that the BJP gets 7 seats from Bihar before 2019. The BJP already holds 2, so the best case for the BJP is a net gain of 5. Net change for BJP in best case=+5.

Chattisgarh:
Current Status: There are 3 members due to retire before 2019 (2 in 2016, and 1 in 2018). Of the 2 retiring in 2016, one is from the Congress, and one from the BJP. The number of seats needed to elect a member in 2016 is 31, so both parties will retain their seats. The one retiring in 2018 is from the BJP, and the BJP will retain this seat (number of votes needed for this one is 46). Net change for the BJP=0.

Goa:
Current Status: There is 1 member due to retire in 2017. He is from the Congress. The BJP is currently in power in Goa, but the Goa Assembly term will have run out before the retirement of the present member in the Rajya Sabha. If the BJP retains power in Goa (as it should, given that Manohar Parrikar is very popular), it will take the seat. Otherwise, there will be no change. Net change in the best case=+1.

Gujarat:
Current Status: There are 7 members due to retire before 2019 (3 in 2017, 4 in 2018). Of the 3 retiring in 2017, 2 are from the BJP and 1 from the Congress. The number of votes needed to ensure the victory of a candidate is 46. Therefore, the current status will continue in 2017, with both the Congress and the BJP retaining their seats. Of the 4 retiring in 2018, 3 are from the BJP and 1 from the Congress. But by 2018, the current Assembly’s term will have run out. The number of votes needed to ensure the victory of a nominee in 2018 will be 37. As long as the BJP can maintain its current strength, the BJP will retain its seats in Gujarat. However, taking all 4 in Gujarat will require a strength of 148, which is well above what the BJP has ever had. Consequently, the BJP might at best, retain its strength. Net change in best case for BJP by 2019=0.

Haryana:
Current status: There are 3 members scheduled to retire in Haryana, but there is a vacancy currently available. Two members (including the one who will be elected now to fill the vacancy) will be due to retire in 2016, and another member is due to retire in 2018. The immediate vacancy can be filled up with a BJP member immediately, and the other person retiring in 2016 is from the INLD. The number of seats required to win a Rajya Sabha seat in Haryana is 31 in 2016, and 46 in 2018. Given that the BJP has a strength of only 47 and that the INLD and the Congress have 34, it is hard to see the BJP take both in Haryana in 2016. The person retiring in 2018 is from the Congress. So, the BJP is likely to gain 1 immediately, and another 1 in 2018. Net gain by 2019 for the BJP=+2.

Himachal Pradesh:
Current Status: There are 2 members due to retire before 2019, 1 in 2016, and 1 in 2018. Both members due to retire are from the BJP. The BJP is sure to lose the seat it held in 2016 since the Congress is in government there, and unless it can come back to power in 2017 (very possible), will lose the other too. Best case scenario for the BJP by 2019=-1.

Jammu & Kashmir:
Current Status: There are 4 members due to retire by 2015. 2 are from the Congress, and 2 from the National Conference. The number of seats needed to ensure the election of a Rajya Sabha member from Kashmir is 18. The current Assembly’s term will have run out by 2015, and the BJP is almost certain to increase its strength from 11 in the current Assembly. It will be interesting to see if they can reach the magic figure of 36 to get 2 seats (getting 54 seats in Kashmir is impossible for the BJP). If they do (and there is a distant chance they might be able to do it), then the BJP will have gained 2 seats. If not, at least 1 seat is almost certain for the BJP. Best case scenario for the BJP before 2019=+2.

Jharkhand:
Current Status: There are 4 members due to retire by 2019 (2 in 2016, and 2 in 2018). Of the 2 due to retire in 2016, 1 is from the Congress and 1 from the JMM. The current Assembly’s term is due to run out later this year, so the next Assembly will decide the fates of the incumbents. The BJP is certain to increase its strength from the current 18. The number of votes needed to win a Rajya Sabha berth is 28. The BJP is likely to muster that number easily. Whether it can bag both seats (it is quite possible for the BJP to win 56 seats, given the dismal state its opposition is in) remains to be seen. Of the members due to retire in 2018, there is 1 from the Congress, and 1 from the JMM. If the BJP wins both seats in 2016, it will repeat that performance in 2018. In the best case, the BJP can expect to bag all 4 seats from Jharkhand. Net gain in the best case for the BJP by 2019=+4.

Karnataka:
Current Status: There are 8 members due to retire by 2019 (4 in 2016, and 4 in 2018). Of the ones due to retire in 2016, BJP holds 2 seats, 1 seat is held by an independent, and 1 more by the Congress. 45 votes are needed to win a seat in Karnataka. The BJP currently has only 49 members in the Assembly, and consequently, can win only 1 seat. It will lose a seat in 2016. Similarly, the BJP has 2 of the 4 members due to retire in 2018, and can only retain 1 of the 2 seats. Consequently, the net change for the BJP by 2019=-2.

Kerala:
Current status: BJP has nothing, and will get nothing. If BJP can actually manage to get into double digits in the Kerala Assembly in 2016, I will throw a party.

Madhya Pradesh:
Current Status: There are 8 members due to retire by 2019 (3 in 2016, and 5 in 2018). Of the 3 due to retire in 2016, 2 are from the BJP, and 1 from the Congress. The number of seats needed to secure a berth in the Rajya Sabha is 58. The BJP currently has a strength of 165, there are 3 independents and 4 belonging to the BSP, which leads to a strength of 172. The Congress has a strength of 58. If the BJP can ensure 2 more victories in the by-polls, they can bag all the 3 seats. If not, the current 2 for the BJP and 1 for the Congress will be retained. But given that there is only 1 year left and the BSP members are as likely to vote for the Congress as not, it may well be safe to assume that the present standing will be maintained in the Rajya Sabha in 2016. In the best case for the BJP, it will gain 1, else it will remain status quo. In 2018, there are 5 members retiring, so the number of seats required to win a berth is 39. Given that the Congress has only 58 seats, it is likely that the BJP will retain its 4, and the Congress its 1. Net change in the best case for the BJP by 2019=+1.

Maharashtra:
Current Status: There are 12 members scheduled to retire by 2019 (6 in 2016, and 6 in 2018). Of the 6 scheduled to retire in 2016, 2 are from the Congress, 2 are from the NCP, 1 is from the BJP and 1 from the Shiv Sena. 42 seats are required to win a seat in Maharashtra in 2016, so the BJP with its current tally of 123 should be able to get 3 independents to vote with it, and win 3 seats. If it allies with the Shiv Sena, it should be able to win 4 easily. This means a net gain of 2. Of the 6 who are scheduled to retire in 2018, 2 are from the Congress, 2 are from the NCP, 1 from the Shiv Sena and 1 from the BJP. A similar figure as in the previous case should occur in Maharashtra too, so the BJP should be able to win 3 seats, and the Shiv Sena 1. Net change for the BJP by 2019=+4.

Manipur:
Current Status: The BJP has nothing, and is most unlikely to get anything.

Meghalaya:
Current Status: The BJP has nothing, and is most unlikely to get anything.

Mizoram:
Current Status: The BJP has nothing, and is most unlikely to get anything.

Nagaland:
Current Status: The lone seat is held by the NPF, and will be retained by it.

Odisha:
Current Status: The BJP has nothing, and is most unlikely to get anything.

Punjab:
Current Status: All 7 seats of Punjab are up for re-election in 2016. The number of seats needed to win a Rajya Sabha berth in Punjab is 15. Currently, 3 are held by the SAD, 1 by the BJP and 3 by the Congress. The current composition of the Assembly indicates that the same arrangement will continue. Net change for the BJP=0.

Rajasthan:
Current Status: There are 7 seats that are scheduled for re-election by 2019 (4 in 2016, and 3 in 2018). Of the 4 that are up for re-election in 2016, 2 are held by the Congress, and 2 by the BJP (Ram Jethmalani is an independent who is elected with the backing of the BJP). The number of seats that are required for a Rajya Sabha berth in 2016 is 41. The BJP has 160 seats, and has the support of a number of independents. The BJP should be able to take all the 4 in 2016. Of the 3 scheduled to retire in 2018, 2 are from the Congress and 1 from the BJP. The number of seats needed for a Rajya Sabha berth in 2018 are 51. With the BJP having 160 seats, it should be able to easily take all the 3 seats in 2018, netting a gain of 2. Net change for the BJP by 2019=+4.

Sikkim:
Current Status: The BJP has nothing, but can possibly get the SDF into an alliance in the state. The SDF, which should take the RS seat when it comes up for re-election in 2018, faces no problems joining the BJP if need be.

Tamil Nadu:
Current status: There are 6 members are scheduled for re-election by 2019 (all 6 in 2016, after the new Assembly poll). Of the 6 whose re-elections are due, 3 are held by the AIADMK, 2 by the DMK and 1 by the Congress. The number of seats needed to win a Rajya Sabha poll in Tamil Nadu in 2016 is 34. It is most unlikely that the NDA can win 34 seats in Tamil Nadu in 2016 Assembly polls, unless there is a miracle from heaven. I will be delighted if the BJP gets into the 2 figures in Tamil Nadu. Unless there is a miracle from heaven, there will be no change for the BJP. Net change for the BJP in the best (honestly, hilariously optimistic case) for Tamil Nadu=+1.

Telangana:
Current Status: There are 5 members scheduled to face re-election by 2019 (2 in 2016, and 3 in 2018). Of the 2 who are scheduled to face re-election in 2016, 1 is from the Congress and 1 from the TDP. 40 seats are required to win a Rajya Sabha election in 2016, so the TRS is likely to take both seats. The TDP will lose its seat. Of the 3 who are scheduled to face re-election in 2018, there are 2 from the Congress, and 1 from the TDP. The number of seats needed to win a Rajya Sabha seat in 2018 is 30, so, given the understanding between the Congress and the TRS, the TRS will likely bag 2 seats, and the Congress 1. Net change for the NDA by 2019=-2.

Tripura:
Current Status: The BJP has nothing, and will get nothing. The party barely exists in Tripura.

Uttarakhand:
Current Status: There are 3 seats up for re-election by 2019, 1 in 2014, 1 in 2016, and 1 in 2018. Given that the Congress will be in power till at least early 2017, the Congress will gain 2, at least. If the BJP comes to power in early 2017, it can take the seat in 2018. Currently, 1 seat in Uttarakhand is vacant, 1 is with the BJP (coming up for election in 2016) and 1 is with the Congress (coming up for re-election in 2018). Net change for the BJP in the best case=0.

Uttar Pradesh:
Current Status: There are 31 members are scheduled to retire before 2019 (10 in 2014, 11 in 2016, and 10 in 2018). Of the 10 scheduled to retire in 2014, 6 are from the BSP, 2 are independents, 1 is from the BJP, and 1 is from the SP. 37 seats are required to win a Rajya Sabha seat from UP in 2014. The BJP has 38 seats currently in the UP Assembly, so the BJP is well poised to retain its seat. In 2016, out of the 11 seats, the BSP currently holds 6, the SP 3, the BJP 1, and the Congress 1. 34 seats are required to win a Rajya Sabha berth in 2016, so the BJP is poised to once more retain its own seat. In 2018, of the 10 Rajya Sabha seats at stake, the SP holds 6, the BSP 2, the BJP 1, and the Congress 1. Again, 37 seats are required to win a Rajya Sabha seat. It is here that the BJP can make great progress. If the BJP wins a majority in the next Assembly in UP (quite possible, by the way), it can take 6 of the Rajya Sabha seats with 212 seats in the next Assembly. If the BJP gets 250 of the 403 seats, it will take 7 seats. Expecting more than 250 is too ambitious, even by Modi standards in UP. Net change in the best case for the BJP in UP by 2019=+6.

West Bengal:
Current Status: 11 seats are coming up for re-election by 2019 (6 in 2017, and 5 in 2018). Of the 6 seats coming up for re-election in 2017, 4 are held by the TMC, 1 by the Congress, and 1 by the CPM. The number of seats needed to win a Rajya Sabha berth in 2017 is 43. The BJP has been showing great promise in West Bengal. Assuming that the BJP gets 43 seats in the next WB Assembly election, it is possible to get 1 seat. Similarly, in 2018, the number of seats needed to win a Rajya Sabha seat will be 50. Of the 5 seats up for re-election in 2018, 4 are held by the TMC and 1 by the CPM. If the BJP gets 50 seats, then it can get 1 seat. This would be a best case scenario. Net change for the BJP in the best case in West Bengal by 2019=+2.

National Capital Territory of Delhi:
Current Status: There are 3 seats coming up for re-election in 2018. All 3 are held by the Congress. The number of seats needed to win the Rajya Sabha poll in 2018 in Delhi are 18. Assuming that the BJP can get 36 seats in the coming Assembly elections in Delhi, it can win 2 of the 3 seats. Net change for the BJP in the best case for 2019=+2.

Edited: Delhi apparently gives all 3 Rajya Sabha seats to the winner in the Assembly elections. So, if BJP forms the government in Delhi, it is likely to get all 3 seats, not 2 as predicted above. (This was pointed out by an observant reader, Karan. Thanks to him.)

Pondicherry:
Current Status: There is 1 seat coming up for re-election in 2015, and it is held by the Congress. But considering that Pondicherry has been ruled by an NDA constituent, the NDA can expect to win this seat. Net change by 2019 for the BJP=+1.

Nominated:
There are 11 nominated seats who will have to be replaced (2 in 2015, 5 in 2016, and 4 in 2018). All of them, one assumes, will be replaced by BJP friendly people. Net change by 2019 for BJP=+11.

Adding up all the best cases for the BJP (a hilariously optimistic prediction), we get the following changes. 2 in Andhra Pradesh, 5 in Bihar, 1 in Goa, 2 in Haryana, -1 in Himachal Pradesh, 2 in Jammu and Kashmir, 4 in Jharkhand, -2 in Karnataka, 1 in Madhya Pradesh, 4 in Maharashtra, 4 in Rajasthan, 1 in Tamil Nadu, -2 in Telangana, 6 in Uttar Pradesh, 2 in West Bengal, 3 in Delhi, and 1 in Pondicherry. Apart from that, there will be 11 Nominated members sympathetic to the BJP. This brings the NDA tally to 32 bonus members for the NDA and 11 nominated members who are sympathetic. This basically means that the NDA, which currently has a strength of 61 at the current moment (including sympathetic independents), will have a tally of 94 by the end of the term. If one adds the 11 Nominated members, the NDA will have 105 members working for it. The majority needed for the NDA in the Rajya Sabha is 123. Even at the end of the term, with all the sympathetic Independents and Nominated members, the NDA will still not have a majority.